When it comes to whether China or the West wields the most influence in Africa, it’s not much of a contest.
The parade of leaders meeting with Xi Jinping for the ninth Forum on China–Africa Cooperation illustrates Beijing’s position as the dominant foreign economic player on the continent. They include Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, and Kenya’s William Ruto, among others.
Xi today pledged $50 billion in financial support to Africa over the next three years and signaled closer military cooperation. China will also exempt import tariffs from 33 of Africa’s poorest nations and expand access to the world’s second-largest economy.
Yet it’s not all positive news. Chinese lending has come under scrutiny as a wave of debt distress swept Africa in recent years, and three countries defaulted in part because of massive loans from Beijing.
Now Xi — facing his own economic woes at home — has changed the terms. Instead of the sovereign-to-sovereign loans that China used to build roads, bridges and dams across Africa, Beijing is looking at additional straight business relationships that offer bigger financial returns and less risk of blowback if things go wrong.
The new model will see Chinese firms and banks act in commercial capacities, building infrastructure tied to specific revenue-generating projects, such as the $1 billion deal signed yesterday to resurrect a Mao-era railway line in Zambia’s copper belt.
The conclave that opened today illustrates Beijing’s efforts to build influence across the Global South as part of its drive to challenge the US-led world order.
The attention the big powers pay to Africa tells its own story. Xi has traveled to the continent five times since taking power — no American president has visited Africa since Barack Obama almost a decade ago.
Even US officials concede that when African nations need large-scale investments, their first stop will probably be China. — Neil Munshi